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Survey Sees Scope for Big Bang Reform

HYDERABAD: For the first time since the 1990s, there is a renewed hope that the Indian economy can overtake the Chinese dragon and pretty soon at that.
The Economic Survey 2015-16, tabled in Parliament on Friday, indicates a number of positives that could culminate in this long-cherished dream. This is doable not necessarily with ‘Big Bang reforms’, but with persistent, encompassing and ‘creative incrementalism’, suggests the Survey.
Based on the revised GDP estimates, India is all set to grow at 8.1-8.5 per cent next fiscal starting in April, up from the projected 7.5 per cent for 2014-15. If this happens, indeed, in this fiscal itself India can surpass China, whose economy analysts had pegged at 7 per cent.
There’s more. The Survey suggests that the country can achieve double-digit growth in the next few years. According to the Survey, in the short-term, recent reforms such as diesel price deregulation, FDI in defence and coal ordinance will aid growth. Besides, the correction in fuel prices, better monsoon, moderating inflation and monetary easing will spur investments and household expenditure. With inflation well under the RBI’s comfort zone, the Survey says rate cuts are round the corner.
In the medium-term, it  says, the fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent should be achieved controlling expenditure, primarily eliminating leakages in subsidies. “The way to achieve this objective should be based on firm control over expenditure, most notably by eliminating leakages in subsidies and social expenditures,” it says. Similarly, current account deficit would be down to 1 per cent of the GDP next fiscal.
Stating that the roll-out of the much-awaited Goods and Services Tax is essential to maximise the growth-enhancing power of reforms, the Survey also says that direct tax reforms will incentivise saving and increase tax base. Both WPI and CPI-based inflation have moderated due to falling global commodity prices, dip in rural wages and moderation of minimum support price. It expects CPI to be between 5 and 5.5 per cent, and the GDP deflator between 2.8 and 3 per cent.

source: New indian express
Senkottai Sriram Srinivasan

Senkottai Sriram Srinivasan

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